Recently, the U.S. dollar rally, commodities appear to adjust certain extent,bailey UGG boots, I believe that PTA in the rigid short-term liquidity needs and financial environment spread compression of downstream products can still be achieved higher profit margins, there are 1,000 yuan rise in the late space. seize the goods brought by the dollar's recent rebound adjustment opportunities, investors can purchase the appropriate first-line long positions in 8500.
PTA usher in demand-driven rise in the second half, the inertia will remain open on the red 1000 Yuan rises
more clear is that, PTA prices in July since the beginning of a major motivating factor is inflation, and the other is the increased demand for PTA. as polyester, polyester profitable, polyester manufacturers increased demand for PTA, PTA spot market prices push higher. Therefore, polyester, polyester industry, the state determines its own PTA needs of its sustainable level and the price of their acceptable level of PTA. According to the production structure and chain production time difference to consider, I selected the downstream market finished the first stage the price of its polyester filament analysis, we can see that half the production of polyester margins above 8% of the time, PTA spot prices will be demand to support a significant increase. logically also very easy to understand, because polyester industry profits increase, the equilibrium point than manufacturers, polyester, polyester manufacturers will increase production, resulting in a large number of PTA needs.
However, I need to make is, PTA really needs to promote the rise in real terms over that from now on, PTA will experience lower profit margins by squeezing the inertia on the formation of red. According to the production of polyester half profit margin calculation shows that, within half a month has not been reflected in the raw material price increases in profit margins. According to data projection shows that if polyester filament to maintain the current prices, profit margins will be back in 3 weeks about 8%. coincidence , from September 20 polyester half months after the production margin of 8% also experienced a 3 weeks time, the period of PTA prices rose by nearly 1,000 yuan, so, I believe that if the macro is not unexpected, in mid-November PTA spot price or to reach 9,500 yuan / ton high.
Polyester manufacturers can reduce the operating rate in the short term, PTA
rigid demand exists I believe that the post-PTA to inertia on the red PTA is a major cause of short-term memory in the rigid demand.
released under the CCF polyester stock index, the current inventory of polyester in July 2009 has been relatively low. According to the traditional production cycle of the downstream, November,UGG shoes, 12 will be on the domestic production of textile fabrics increased significantly, so the 11 calendar months and 12 months will be to increase polyester manufacturers started accumulating inventory behavior. and on the current inventory of polyester, the polyester manufacturers will remain, and will be a long time to maintain a high operating rate needs to face the tide had occurred. coupled with the current polyester production profitable, despite the recent sales ratio has decreased, but the high-profit, producers will not take the initiative reduction initiatives. Therefore, the downstream rate of consumption of PTA will not be reduced in the short term, PTA demand remains rigid.
In addition, this year's global climate are abnormal, the relevant information, this year could face 20 years in China once in the winter, In this occasion snowstorms insufficient supply of cotton as record high prices. As with cotton, there are some alternative, another big textile raw materials of polyester filament, the market demand for it is difficult to decline.
PTA demand
phased into October, PTA installations of a maintenance concentration, PTA industry's overall operating rate of the rapid decline occurs, the current operating rate has been from the beginning of PTA 94% to 80%. and PTA is the performance of different industries, polyester 82% operating rate is still maintaining a high operating rate, combined with the PTA plant maintenance scheduling estimates, October PTA industry operating rate up to 85%, then the PTA there is the difference between the supply of about 490,000 tons . The October PTA imports are generally relatively low season, the past 6 years, October has been the lowest monthly PTA imports. Therefore, I believe that, even if the October PTA imported 40 million tons,UGG boots cheap, still exist gaps in the supply of 90,000 tons . Thus, the short-term shortage of supply will be difficult to make drastic price adjustments PTA.
inflation continues, domestic liquidity flooding
in the clear, the foreign hot money into China capital market gradually. Long-term RMB exchange rate pegged to the dollar was kidnapped by depreciation of the dollar, only by increasing the domestic currency in circulation to reduce the real purchasing power of domestic RMB exchange rate to achieve the objective of stability. Once the RMB again of the European Union, Japan and other major exporters of appreciation, will seriously affect the survival of the domestic export industry, and then shake the domestic economy. while at the same exercise in the U.S. economic stimulus plan, put money in the case of large, the Chinese government can control the lack of effect opportunity, even if the State has repeatedly flip a reservoir, real estate, domestic regulation in order to suppress the excessive growth of the CPI, but in fact, when the declining purchasing power of money and resources are limited, the upward trend in commodities is difficult to curb. On the domestic to view, hot money inflows, while the central bank did not appear significant, continuous behavior of the monetary contraction.
state of real estate's wait and see policy implementation did not result in house prices fell sharply, but speculative capital on the sidelines of the extension of the real estate will be no place to make ample liquidity run, turn into the financial markets. while under the influence of inflation expectations, prices of domestic goods will inevitably continue to rise.
In summary, I believe that PTA will continue upward trend, the cash 9,500 yuan / ton will reach the target within the next month. futures, often the history of PTA Futures appears the main futures prices discount half the situation, therefore, post-PTA futures rises may not be as spot, but the overall upward trend in the same room to rise more than 600 points can be expected.
operation,Discount UGG boots, investment U.S. may seize the bottomless recent price correction is expected to lead to the opportunity to build more industrial goods, the major adjustment of the contract 1101 may 8550 support line. but must be noted that, due to the rise in the late compression tend to lower profits and liquidity bring a premium, so the significant increase in risk of holding more, PTA short-term market volatility as prices will rise further with increasing proportion of investors to control the position.
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